Using expert advice and modelling to move towards COVID normal

As we prepare Victoria’s roadmap to COVID normal, analysis of Victorian case data, expert advice, academic research, and modelling all help to develop the Coronavirus roadmap for reopening.

Emerging from lockdown - Evidence, modelling, outputs and assumptions (PDF)

COVID-19 in Victorian Schools

The Murdoch Children’s Research Institute (MCRI) COVID-19 in Victorian Schools Report is the result of extensive research and collaboration over many months.

Primary contributors are:

  • Professor Fiona Russell, Child and Adolescent Health PhD Program Director, Paediatrics Department, The University of Melbourne
  • Dr Kathleen E Ryan, MCRI Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Health
  • Dr Kathryn Snow, Research Fellow, Paediatrics Department, The University of Melbourne
  • Associate Professor Margie Danchin, Paediatrician, Royal Children's Hospital; Clinician Scientist Fellow, Department of Paediatrics and School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne
  • Professor Kim Mulholland, Professorial Fellow, Department of Paediatrics, The University of Melbourne; Professor of Child Health and Vaccinology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  • Professor Sharon Goldfeld, Director, Centre for Community Child Health, Royal Children's Hospital; Professor, Department of Paediatrics, The University of Melbourne.

COVID-19 in Victorian Schools Report (PDF)

For more information, see COVID-19 in Victorian schools and childcare on the MCRI website.

Modelling 

Modelling is an important part of government decision making.   

Trends are informed by the impacts of government policies, community behaviour and epidemiological dynamics. It is not the only data we use, but it is an important insight to help us make the right decisions and open up safely, for the benefit of all Victorians.   

Research by Murdoch Children’s Research Institute has helped inform the latest University of Melbourne modelling results.

For more information about the model, see Emerging from lockdown - model.

The modelling presented from the Burnet institute is an adaptation of the existing Covasim Epidemic model, developed by the Institute for Disease Modelling (USA), calibrated to the Victorian epidemic.  

Primary contributors are:  

  • Dr Nick Scott, Head, Modelling Working Group, Burnet Institute; Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University.
  • Dr Romesh Abeysuriya, Senior Research Officer, Modelling Working Group, Burnet Institute; Adjunct Research Fellow, Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, and
  • Professor Margaret Hellard, Deputy Director Burnet Institute; Head, Hepatitis Services, Department of Infectious Diseases The Alfred Hospital; Adjunct Professor, Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University;  Adjunct Professor, Doherty Institute and School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne 

COVID-19 Mathematical modelling of resurgence risk - Burnett Institute (PDF)

For more information, see COVASIM: Modelling COVID-19 on the Burnett Institute website.