Emerging from lockdown model

A model, developed by Melbourne University, shows what might happen to the number of cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) in Victoria depending on how restrictions are eased including:

  • Lifting restrictions in mid-September
  • Slowly easing restrictions

This model has been used to develop the roadmap to COVID Normal.

You can access the model here:

You can access a supplementary article and technical appendix to the modelling on the University of Melbourne’s website.

The model and its authors

Melbourne University’s Dynamic Policy Model (DPM) is the result of an extensive international collaboration among a multi-disciplinary team from Australia and New Zealand over many months.

Primary contributors are:

  • Dr Jason Thompson (PhD, Medicine), a computational social scientist from Melbourne University’s Transport, Health and Urban Design Research Lab
  • Professor Rod McClure, emergency physician and Dean of Faculty of Medicine and Health from University of New England
  • Professor Mark Stevenson, epidemiologist and Professor of Urban Transport and Public Health at the University of Melbourne
  • Professor Tony Blakely, Professorial Fellow In Epidemiology from the Population Interventions Unit at Melbourne University’s School of Population and Global Health.  

Contributors in the project have generously given their time pro-bono to DHHS to provide outputs from their model.